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  "authors": [
    "Thomas Carothers",
    "Marina Ottaway"
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Avoiding the Dangers of Early Elections in Iraq

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By Thomas Carothers and Marina Ottaway
Published on Oct 3, 2003
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Democracy, Conflict, and Governance

The Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program is a leading source of independent policy research, writing, and outreach on global democracy, conflict, and governance. It analyzes and seeks to improve international efforts to reduce democratic backsliding, mitigate conflict and violence, overcome political polarization, promote gender equality, and advance pro-democratic uses of new technologies.

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Source: Carnegie

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Summary
The Bush administration is pushing for elections in Iraq sometime next year. This extremely accelerated timetable is dangerous. Early elections in postconflict situations can produce unstable results and favor radical groups over still-emergent moderate forces.

Because the administration has made elections a requisite for Iraqi sovereignty and faces growing pressure to transfer sovereignty, delaying elections is not an option. The solution is to limit the current constitution writing to an interim document that provides the framework for the election of a constituent assembly and an interim government of national unity. This would produce an elected Iraqi government to which sovereignty can be transferred and create a framework for the longer-term process of political consensus building necessary to create permanent democratic institutions.

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ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Marina Ottaway
is senior associate and Thomas Carothers is director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project at the Carnegie Endowment.

Resources

Arab Reform Bulletin. New e-monthly addressing political reform in the Middle East. Go to www.ceip.org/signup to subscribe.
Is Gradualism Possible? Choosing a Strategy for Promoting Democracy in the Middle East
, Thomas Carothers
Political Reconstruction in Iraq: A Reality Check, Marina Ottaway and Judith S. Yaphe
Promoting Democracy in the Middle East: The Problem of U.S. Credibility, Marina Ottaway
Democracy Challenged: The Rise of Semi-Authoritarianism, Marina Ottaway
Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve, Thomas Carothers

About the Authors

Thomas Carothers

Harvey V. Fineberg Chair for Democracy Studies; Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program

Thomas Carothers, a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, is a leading expert on comparative democratization and international support for democracy.

Marina Ottaway

Former Senior Associate, Middle East Program

Before joining the Endowment, Ottaway carried out research in Africa and in the Middle East for many years and taught at the University of Addis Ababa, the University of Zambia, the American University in Cairo, and the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa.

Authors

Thomas Carothers
Harvey V. Fineberg Chair for Democracy Studies; Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program
Thomas Carothers
Marina Ottaway
Former Senior Associate, Middle East Program
Marina Ottaway
Political ReformDemocracyMiddle EastIraq

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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