How Democracies Emerge: The "Sequencing" Fallacy

{
  "authors": [
    "Thomas Carothers"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Democracy and Governance"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "democracy",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "DCG",
  "programs": [
    "Democracy, Conflict, and Governance"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "North America",
    "Middle East",
    "China"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Democracy"
  ]
}

In The Media

How Democracies Emerge: The "Sequencing" Fallacy

In the second half of the 1990s, a counterreaction emerged to the heady enthusiasm about democracy promotion that flourished during the peak years of democracy’s “third wave” in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Believing that the global democratic wave had been oversold, several policy experts and scholars produced a series of influential articles articulating a pessimistic, cautionary view.

By Thomas Carothers

Published on Jan 10, 2007

Source: Journal of Democracy

In the second half of the 1990s, a counterreaction emerged to the heady enthusiasm about democracy and democracy promotion that flourished during the peak years of democracy’s “third wave” in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Believing that the global democratic wave had been oversold, several policy experts and scholars produced a series of influential articles articulating a pessimistic, cautionary view. Fareed Zakaria, alarmed by what he saw as a dangerous rash of newly elected leaders restricting rights and abusing power from Peru and Argentina to the Philippines and Kazakhstan, warned that rapid democratization was producing a plague of “illiberal democracy.”¹ Troubled by violent conflicts breaking out in former Yugoslavia, the former Soviet Union, and elsewhere, Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder argued that democratizing states are in fact more conflict-prone than stable autocracies.² Disturbed by the specter of ethnic conflict in different parts of Asia, Amy Chua asserted that the simultaneous pursuit of democracy and market reform in countries with “market-dominant minorities” leads to ethnic conflict and antimarket backlashes.³

Click on PDF icon above to read full article.

About the Author

Thomas Carothers

Harvey V. Fineberg Chair for Democracy Studies; Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program

Thomas Carothers, a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, is a leading expert on comparative democratization and international support for democracy.

Recent Work

Article
How Is Hungary’s New Government Doing?
- Thomas Carothers
Paper
America Walks Away from Global Democracy
- Thomas Carothers

Political Reform Democracy North America Middle East China

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Commentary
Strategic Europe
The EU’s Middle-Power Puzzle
While the EU and European governments are embracing the much-lauded middle-power moment, this entails three difficult conundrums.
Richard Youngs
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Turkmenistan’s Ruling Duo Is Having a Family Feud. Will Their Regime Survive It?
Ex-president Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov remains interested in politics, but his son Serdar, Turkmenistan’s current president, is becoming increasingly independent and willing to break with his father’s legacy. If their covert rivalry goes too far, both risk losing power.
Galiya Ibragimova
Book
The Scramble for Europe. Russia, China, and Turkey Challenging Regional Order
Europe is facing rising populism internally as well as external pressures from Russia, China, Turkey, and the United States.
Dimitar Bechev
Article
Europe’s Tide of Citizen Assemblies: Unsung Success or Anticlimax?
A notable degree of participative democracy has firmly arrived in Europe. But to have more far-reaching impact, democratic deliberation needs to move into a radically new phase.
Richard Youngs
Paper
Governance Compared: Autocracy and Democracy in Africa
Today’s global democratic recession is partly rooted in a common perception that democracies have a delivery problem, with many citizens in both autocracies and democracies alike now believing that strongmen can achieve better governance outcomes. But a study of four countries in Africa reveals that democratic-leaning governments have demonstrated better governance performance than autocratic governments.
Sarah Yerkes, Natalie Triche, Amr Hamzawy

How Democracies Emerge: The "Sequencing" Fallacy

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Commentary

Strategic Europe

The EU’s Middle-Power Puzzle

While the EU and European governments are embracing the much-lauded middle-power moment, this entails three difficult conundrums.

Richard Youngs

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Turkmenistan’s Ruling Duo Is Having a Family Feud. Will Their Regime Survive It?

Ex-president Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov remains interested in politics, but his son Serdar, Turkmenistan’s current president, is becoming increasingly independent and willing to break with his father’s legacy. If their covert rivalry goes too far, both risk losing power.

Galiya Ibragimova

Book

The Scramble for Europe. Russia, China, and Turkey Challenging Regional Order

Europe is facing rising populism internally as well as external pressures from Russia, China, Turkey, and the United States.

Dimitar Bechev

European Union EU democracy Parliament citizens assembly

Article

Europe’s Tide of Citizen Assemblies: Unsung Success or Anticlimax?

A notable degree of participative democracy has firmly arrived in Europe. But to have more far-reaching impact, democratic deliberation needs to move into a radically new phase.

Richard Youngs

Men take a tea break in front of a wall with election posters near a polling station in Dar es Salaam on October 25, 2015, during the Tanzanian presidential election.

Paper

Governance Compared: Autocracy and Democracy in Africa

Today’s global democratic recession is partly rooted in a common perception that democracies have a delivery problem, with many citizens in both autocracies and democracies alike now believing that strongmen can achieve better governance outcomes. But a study of four countries in Africa reveals that democratic-leaning governments have demonstrated better governance performance than autocratic governments.

Sarah Yerkes, Natalie Triche, Amr Hamzawy