Commentary
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Stefan Lehne
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China’s Role in Shaping the Future of Afghanistan
China's economic investment in Afghanistan provides an opportunity for Afghan development that could help stabilize the country—an outcome that would benefit not only Afghanistan and China, but also the United States.
By Tiffany Ng
Published on Sep 1, 2010
- China has steadily increased its economic aid and investment in Afghanistan, most notably with a $3.5 billion deal to develop the Aynak copper mine. At the same time, it plays a very limited security role and has refused any direct military involvement.
- Western commentators have eyed China’s approach to Afghanistan with suspicion and resentment, accusing China of “free-riding” and snapping up investment deals at the expense of the United States, which is paying dearly in blood and treasure.
- While the United States and China share the goal of a stable and prosperous Afghanistan, fundamental differences in their basic strategies exist. China does not want to pressure Pakistan, nor does it want to align itself too closely with the United States, for fear of exacerbating the terrorist threat to itself or facilitating a long-term American presence in the region. By maintaining its distance and even-handed diplomacy, Beijing is positioning itself to work with whoever controls Kabul.
- China has the potential to make important contributions to Afghan stability. State-owned Chinese corporations are uniquely risk-tolerant and can help pave the way for future investments. The Chinese also enjoy a more positive relationship with Afghans, making their investments less likely to be targeted for attack by insurgents. These investments can stimulate economic growth that aid money alone cannot.
- U.S. policy makers should work with Afghanistan to ensure that such investment benefits the local people. Given China’s reluctance to openly cooperate with the United States in Afghanistan, Washington should help Kabul to effectively manage and maximize the positive impact of China’s involvement in Afghanistan through better aid coordination, transparency, and training.
About the Author
Tiffany Ng
Former Junior Fellow, Asia Program
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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