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{
  "authors": [
    "Dmitri Trenin",
    "Eugene Rumer"
  ],
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  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
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Source: Getty

In The Media
Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

What's Next in Ukraine and Syria for the US and Russia?

Putin interprets the victory of the Maidan in Ukraine as a victory of anti-Russian and pro-Western forces. He is very concerned about the possibility of having an anti-Russian state right on the Russian border.

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By Dmitri Trenin and Eugene Rumer
Published on Mar 3, 2014
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Program

Russia and Eurasia

The Russia and Eurasia Program continues Carnegie’s long tradition of independent research on major political, societal, and security trends in and U.S. policy toward a region that has been upended by Russia’s war against Ukraine.  Leaders regularly turn to our work for clear-eyed, relevant analyses on the region to inform their policy decisions.

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Source: KCRW’s To the Point

If Russia does intend to forcefully take control of Crimea, it would violate international laws on territorial integrity. Already, the western powers have threatened various ways to isolate Russia diplomatically and economically. Does Vladimir Putin care?

Carnegie’s Eugene Rumer and Dmitri Trenin spoke about the recent developments in Ukraine on KCRW’s To the Point. They were joined by Will Englund of the Washington Post and P. J. Crowley of the George Washington University.

Trenin argued that Russia has switched gears in a dramatic way during the past ten days, moving from moderate reactions to deep involvement in the Ukrainian conflict. This change of policy is a result of Putin’s reassessment of the situation: now he seems to interpret the victory of the Maidan as a victory of anti-Russian forces. Putin does not only fear to lose Ukraine as a good neighbor that can be influenced, Trenin added, but to have an anti-Russian state right on the Russian border.

Rumer said that Ukraine’s close relations with Russia and with the EU seem to be mutually exclusive for Putin, who looks at the world from a zero-sum perspective. Now Ukraine made it clear that it still want to vigorously pursue the path of European integration. Thus, Rumer noted, Putin has calculated the risks and the costs and figured out that getting hold of Crimea and letting Ukraine go west is worth the price of taking actions on the peninsula.

This interview was originally broadcast on KCRW.

About the Authors

Dmitri Trenin

Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center

Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.

Eugene Rumer
Eugene Rumer

Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program

Rumer, a former national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the U.S. National Intelligence Council, is a senior fellow and the director of Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program.

Authors

Dmitri Trenin
Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Eugene Rumer
Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
Eugene Rumer
SecurityForeign PolicyRussiaEastern EuropeUkraine

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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