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Source: Getty

In The Media

TPP Is in a Coma and China Stands to Gain

The prospects for the Trans-Pacific Partnership look dim in the face of a Trump administration, which may open opportunities for China to take the lead in the Pacific region.

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By Douglas H. Paal
Published on Nov 17, 2016
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The Asia Program in Washington studies disruptive security, governance, and technological risks that threaten peace, growth, and opportunity in the Asia-Pacific region, including a focus on China, Japan, and the Korean peninsula.

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Source: CNBC

Speaking to CNBC, Carnegie’s Douglas H. Paal stated his perspectives on the future of the TPP in the wake of Trump’s electional victory and transition into the presidency.

“I think the situation is one were the American people really want to see him show big change, and he can’t ignore that promise, that expectation,” Paal said. “But at the same time, you can’t tear the temple down and expect to be able to have services, to be able to do business. So it’s going to come out somewhere in between.

“We’re at the point where nobody is sending really clear signals from the Trump transition: it’s the usual three to four weeks of chaos before the main players are identified and they start to impose order on the process. And so I think it’s something you have to ride through for a little while until we get better direction from the administration.”

When asked about whether the TPP can survive in any way without U.S. involvement, Paal said, “Probably not, though I think they can make an effort. They are going to have a meeting at APEC in Lima, Peru, this weekend and the eleven other members will explore whether there’s some way to bring it together. But the big draw to TPP was getting into the American market and getting America into the other markets—and that is missing now. I would describe TPP as in a coma—it is not dead, but it’s not showing great prospects either.

“Interestingly, this is going to give a chance to China to take the lead as the responsible stakeholder in the Pacific. They’re the signers of the climate control document that’s now being questioned by the Trump team; they’re the people who got a free trade Asia-Pacific proposal, which they borrowed from the U.S. back in the 90’s, and are now taking forward, without the United States. So we may see a shift of leadership roles from the Obama administration and its pivot to Asia, to China and something else.”

This interview was originally broadcast by CNBC.

About the Author

Douglas H. Paal

Distinguished Fellow, Asia Program

Paal previously served as vice chairman of JPMorgan Chase International and as unofficial U.S. representative to Taiwan as director of the American Institute in Taiwan.

    Recent Work

  • Paper
    America’s Future in a Dynamic Asia

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    U.S.-China Relations at the Forty-Year Mark
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      Douglas H. Paal, Tong Zhao, Chen Qi, …

Douglas H. Paal
Distinguished Fellow, Asia Program
Douglas H. Paal
EconomyTradeForeign PolicyNorth AmericaUnited StatesEast AsiaChina

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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