Amid Rumors of Aliyev’s Succession, a New Generation Comes of Age in Azerbaijan

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In The Media

Amid Rumors of Aliyev’s Succession, a New Generation Comes of Age in Azerbaijan

While Azerbaijan will not become a Western-style liberal democracy anytime soon, recent trends point to a society that is changing—and a government that may now recognize the need to change along with it.

By Paul Stronski

Published on Dec 10, 2019

Program

Russia and Eurasia

The Russia and Eurasia Program continues Carnegie’s long tradition of independent research on major political, societal, and security trends in and U.S. policy toward a region that has been upended by Russia’s war against Ukraine. Leaders regularly turn to our work for clear-eyed, relevant analyses on the region to inform their policy decisions.

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Project

Changing Geopolitics of Eurasia

Twenty-five years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Carnegie’s Changing Geopolitics of Eurasia project will assess the trajectories of the countries of Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia. It will examine their foreign policies, evolving geopolitical environments, and implications for U.S. interests. The Changing Geopolitics of Eurasia project is supported, in part, by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

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Source: World Politics Review

Azerbaijan’s parliament voted to dissolve itself last week, triggering legislative elections on Feb. 9. Some observers speculate that the move sets the stage for President Ilham Aliyev to eventually hand over power to his wife, First Vice President Mehriban Aliyeva. She has assumed a much higher profile on policy issues in the past few years, most recently highlighted by a six-day solo diplomatic mission to Moscow in late November. It is unclear why Aliyev would want to transfer power, but he has been in office for more than 15 years, and the opposition has peddled unsubstantiated rumors about his health.

Azerbaijani politics are opaque, and dynastic succession has been the norm: Aliyev took over as president from his father, Heydar Aliyev, in 2003. The recent dissolution of the largely rubber-stamp parliament could be the first stage of another undemocratic transfer of power. But behind the rumors of succession, there are a series of deeper and more revealing shifts taking place in Azerbaijan today. While the country will not become a Western-style liberal democracy anytime soon, recent trends point to a society that is changing—and a government that may now recognize the need to change along with it....

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This piece was originally published in the World Politics Review.

About the Author

Paul Stronski

Former Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program

Paul Stronski was a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, where his research focuses on the relationship between Russia and neighboring countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

Recent Work

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Russia’s Growing Footprint in Africa’s Sahel Region
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Russia in the Balkans After Ukraine: A Troubling Actor
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Political Reform Caucasus Azerbaijan

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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