Rodrigo Duterte’s sudden arrest for his war on drugs campaign, which resulted in the killing of more than 30,000 men, women, and children, comes at a moment of political uncertainty in the Philippines. This dramatic development has been celebrated by pro-democracy activists and victims’ families, who have long demanded accountability. But this arrest also puts the two most prominent political dynasties in the Philippines on a collision course with serious and imminent implications for domestic politics.
The Philippines has an abysmal track record of holding elected officials accountable, and powerful politicians routinely get away with corruption or even murder. Over the years, successive presidents have systematically undermined and, in the case of Duterte, threatened institutions that can serve as a check on their power. Anticipating these accountability issues following him into post-presidency, [RM1] Duterte proactively appointed allies to key positions in the courts and constitutional commissions. Most notably, Duterte ordered the Philippines’ withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC) midway into his six-year term.
Prospects for accountability became dimmer when Duterte’s daughter, Sara Duterte, was elected as vice president in 2022 alongside President Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos Jr., whose father ruled the country for two decades under a dictatorship and was accused of numerous human rights abuses. The alliance between the country’s most powerful families resulted in a landslide victory. But cracks in the relationship began to appear almost immediately. In December 2024, formal impeachment complaints were brought against Sara Duterte; the charges included corruption, a plot to assassinate the president, and possible involvement in extrajudicial killings in her father’s war on drugs while she was mayor of Davao City.
In this context of past impunity, why did the arrest of Duterte happen now? Part of it is driven by the intense, ongoing rivalry between the two families. Marcos Jr. tried to distance himself from Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest. As soon as the plane carrying the former president took off for The Hague, he gave a press conference explaining that the Philippines had no choice but to cooperate with INTERPOL, downplaying the fact that the warrant came from the ICC. Since coming to power in 2022, Marcos Jr. has repeatedly said that the ICC has no jurisdiction in the Philippines and will not cooperate with the ICC. As the conflict between the two most powerful political dynasties ratcheted up and the alliance unraveled, it became clear that the ICC was the ace up the sleeve of Marcos Jr. and his allies when the president revised his stance on the issue in January. It was always a question of when that ace would be used. This ace card was played just two months before the midterm elections, presumably to discredit the Duterte family and dampen their electoral fortunes. But this tactical gambit may or may not pay off for Marcos Jr. and his political allies.
One reason why Duterte’s arrest may backfire is that the broader public demand for accountability is weak, and grassroots support for Duterte remains high. This support materialized outside of the ICC headquarters in The Hague, where Filipino supporters of Duterte were carrying Philippine flags and signs saying, “We stand with FPRRD [which stands for former president Rodrigo Roa Duterte].” As the van carrying the former president drove past and into the gates of the ICC detention center, the crowds cheered in support of the beleaguered former president. Mobile phones drawn out, Duterte supporters took pictures and videos of their beloved president from Davao as they cheered his arrival. They were upset that their government turned over their kababayan (countryman) to foreigners and a foreign court. In various protests for Duterte across the country his supporters chant, “bring him home.” Online, the dominant fake narrative peddled is that Duterte was illegally detained and kidnapped.
Reaction to the arrest in the Philippines is highly polarized. For the families and friends of the victims, who have long strived for justice, the arrest brought some relief. Prominent activists, including Nobel Prize winner Maria Ressa, celebrated the move as a historic moment in an “age of impunity.” But supporters of Rodrigo Duterte have come out to protest and hold prayer rallies in various parts of Metro Manila, Mindanao and the Visayas. These mobilizations and outcry of support for Duterte are persistent with his public popularity even during his murderous war on drugs campaign. It is worth recalling that despite his murderous track record, Rodrigo Duterte ended his presidency with a nationwide approval rating of 80 percent. Now, his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, remains popular with satisfaction ratings that are close, or at times slightly better, than Marcos Jr.’s approval ratings. Duterte’s youngest daughter, Veronica Duterte, is a social media influencer. She features prominently in videos and pictures taken of her father when Duterte was arrested by the ICC. The videos are seen through the lens of a family protecting an ailing and elderly father. An idealization and victimization that resonates with Filipinos, perhaps more so than the international accountability mechanisms and procedures. Her Instagram followers doubled from one to nearly two million within a day of her father's arrest.
Duterte’s arrest and extradition to The Hague could draw new supporters for Marcos Jr. from progressive circles, but it could also consolidate support for the Dutertes and the political families who support them. For certain, Marcos Jr.’s camp accounted for the political blowback that comes with cooperating with INTERPOL and the ICC. It is too soon to say to what extent Marcos Jr. might benefit from this political strategy. It remains to be seen if there will be more coordinated and well-attended mobilization efforts, both offline and online, in the coming days leading to the pre-trial of Duterte. Marcos Jr. and his allies cannot underestimate how victimization, forgetting, and memorializing are shaped in the digital space. The Marcos family, after all, benefited from a similar dynamic and managed to return to the highest public office after thirty-six years in exile. Some will argue that the pro-Duterte voices in social media are paid trolls or come from organized troll farms. Since the arrest of Duterte, fake news has proliferated online and the social media account of ICC pre-trial judge Iulia Motoc has been become a target of pro-Duterte supporters. The “architects of disinformation” in the Philippines, who influenced the outcomes of the 2016 and 2022 national elections, are a force that can influence the electorate in the coming elections and should be taken seriously.
The Marcos family knows what it means to rise from the ashes. The Marcos’ return to politics shows that Filipino voters can forget human rights abuses; and that loyal supporters of powerful dynasties never go away. They can bring back even the most discredited politicians to power. The Marcos family cannot discount the fact that this formula can work for another political family. This time, their rivals, the Dutertes.
There is no doubt that Duterte’s arrest has brought a sense of optimism for victims of his extrajudicial killings that they will finally get justice at The Hauge. But within the Philippines, justice for past atrocities remains elusive, especially when the accused hold powerful positions and the institutions of accountability remain weak.
