Paper
Maksim Samorukov
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Source: Getty Images
Ever Increasing Circles: How Bulgaria Is Straying from Russia’s Orbit
Bulgarians may still know the name of the Russian ambassador better than the frequently changing heads of their own government, but beyond the media buzz, most of Moscow’s leverage in Bulgaria has perished in the flames of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Published on Jun 18, 2025
For over a century and a half, Bulgaria has featured prominently in Russia’s Black Sea strategy. Instead of direct annexation, the country was assigned the role of a humble satellite, always ready to facilitate Russia’s access to Europe and the Mediterranean as well as ward off other powers from Russia’s southern coast. These objectives haven’t changed much in the 21st century. Joint energy projects with Bulgaria were supposed to bring Russian energy giants closer to European markets, bypassing less pliant transit states, while historical affinity with Bulgarians was leveraged to limit NATO’s presence in and around the Black Sea. The results of Russia’s efforts, however, are in many ways the opposite of those intended.
This paper is a part of the project “Russian Intentions and Actions in the Black Sea” by Transatlantic Leadership Network. Other papers of the project are available here.
About the Author
Maksim Samorukov
Fellow, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Samorukov is a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
- In Odesa’s Shadows: What Is Russia’s Strategy in Moldova?
- Between Russia and the EU: Europe’s Arc of InstabilityPaper
Thomas de Waal, Dimitar Bechev, Maksim Samorukov
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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