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Consequences of Iran’s Presidential Election Results

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Consequences of Iran’s Presidential Election Results

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s election victory could pose an insurmountable challenge to the Obama administration’s engagement strategy, but Iran remains integral to critical foreign policy challenges.

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By Karim Sadjadpour
Published on Jun 14, 2009

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The Middle East Program in Washington combines in-depth regional knowledge with incisive comparative analysis to provide deeply informed recommendations. With expertise in the Gulf, North Africa, Iran, and Israel/Palestine, we examine crosscutting themes of political, economic, and social change in both English and Arabic.

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Following the surprise announcement that President Ahmadinejad had won outright the first round of Iran’s presidential election, Karim Sadjadpour explained the implications for the Obama administration’s diplomatic initiative with Iran and the domestic reaction.

Key points:

  • The United States should wait until the election has played out domestically before commenting on or reaching out to the Iranian government.
     
  • Ahmadinejad’s victory could pose an insurmountable challenge to the Obama administration’s engagement strategy, but Iran remains integral to critical challenges including Afghanistan, the Arab–Israeli conflict, terrorism, and energy security. Once the dust settles the United States will eventually have no choice but to talk to Tehran, but it will likely be a cold, hard-nosed dialogue rather than friendly greetings.
     
  • Despite being the true source of power, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is rarely held accountable for Iran’s economic malaise or political isolation, given the high profile of the Iranian president. The United States should announce publicly they wish to talk directly with Khamenei.
     
  • In the thirty years since the Islamic revolution, Iran’s political elite have never been so divided.
     
  • While dramatic, the current protests are not yet significant enough to pose an existential threat to the regime.

Sadjadpour said:

“In retrospect, it looks like the entire campaign was a show, in the sense that Ayatollah Khamanei was never going to let Ahmadinejad lose. Assuming these results are allowed to stand, I think we should be clear about what type of regime we are dealing with in Tehran. Just as we talk about Assad’s Syria and Mubarak’s Egypt, I think we are now dealing with Khamanei’s Iran.”

About the Author

Karim Sadjadpour

Senior Fellow, Middle East Program

Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East.

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Karim Sadjadpour

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North AmericaUnited StatesMiddle EastIranPolitical ReformForeign Policy

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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