• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
Good News from Moldova

Source: Getty

Article
Carnegie Europe

Good News from Moldova

After a long waiting period, Moldova’s political stalemate has ended and the country’s integration with Europe is once again pressing onward.

Link Copied
By Olga Shumylo-Tapiola
Published on Mar 30, 2012
Program mobile hero image

Program

Russia and Eurasia

The Russia and Eurasia Program continues Carnegie’s long tradition of independent research on major political, societal, and security trends in and U.S. policy toward a region that has been upended by Russia’s war against Ukraine.  Leaders regularly turn to our work for clear-eyed, relevant analyses on the region to inform their policy decisions.

Learn More

After a long waiting period, Moldova’s political stalemate is over and the country’s integration with Europe is once again pressing onward. On March 16, after a number of failed attempts, the parliament finally elected a president. And last week, the country started negotiations on a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the European Union. The EU’s sweetheart in the region, the current Moldovan government, now has no excuse to delay reforms. Yet a few challenges lie ahead, and the EU must reach out to support Moldova.

The first bit of good news, the election of Nicolae Timofti—the sixty-three-year-old head of Moldova’s Supreme Magistrate Council—as president of Moldova liberated the country from an almost three-year-long political deadlock. This gives the Alliance for European Integration, the coalition that has ruled Moldova since July 2009, a few more years to produce results before the next parliamentary elections, which are preliminarily scheduled for 2014. And that means more reforms and more Europeanization.

It also means no immediate return to power for the Communist Party—in opposition since the 2009 vote. The Communists are likely to organize demonstrations and try to stir up protests across the country. Yet, they are unlikely to be able to oust the current coalition and return to power before the next election.

Another important positive step is the way in which the election was conducted. As one high-level EU official suggested, Moldova is clearly following a European path. And regardless of how long that path has been, during the presidential election the coalition “played by the rules and not with the rules.” The coalition did not simply buy the few missing votes, as some of Moldova’s eastern neighbors might have done.

That the new president comes from the judiciary is also positive—and unusual for the EU’s eastern neighborhood. Though many like to see the Moldovan judiciary as corrupt, Mr. Timofti seems to be an honorable man who is respected by many members of society. Even if his presidential powers are limited, he may serve as a “judge” and a reference point for the coalition.

Yet questions remain: How quickly will the alliance proceed with the painful reforms that are needed in almost all spheres of life in Moldova? Will it have enough votes to pass the necessary laws in parliament? Given that a number of political figures have left the Communist camp with more perhaps to follow, how long will that party survive? Will those who left, such as the group around former minister of trade and economics Igor Dodon, try to join the Alliance for European Integration? If so, how will this affect the alliance’s performance?

Those questions will persist as Moldova reacts to its second bit of good news—the beginning of talks on a DCFTA with the EU. That of course has come at a price—the country had to meet serious preconditions before the talks could begin. Moldova has worked hard and collaboratively, and as a result has progressed quickly in talks on the broader Association Agreement with the EU. What took Ukraine years to negotiate, Moldova accomplished in just about twelve months. That can also be explained by the overall pro-European mood at a high political level in Moldova.

The trade talks with Moldova promise to be easy as well—the country already enjoys autonomous trade preferences from the EU, which means unlimited and duty-free access to EU markets for all of Moldova’s products except agricultural goods. Thus for both sides the talks on trade tariffs should not be painful. Agriculture is the only potential sticking point. Additionally, Moldovan businesses are unlikely to pose a threat to negotiations when it comes to adoption of EU acquis, as there is little in the local economy that needs to be protected from EU businesses. Visiting Chisinau a few weeks ago, the EU trade commissioner, Karel De Gucht, suggested that the talks would be finalized by autumn 2013, a deadline welcomed by Moldovans.

Studies conducted by European and Moldovan independent experts show that a DCFTA will be good for the Moldovan economy. It will also help make the country more attractive to its breakaway region, Transnistria. According to the Moldovan government, the representatives of Transnistria are invited as observers to the talks with the EU—a good confidence-building measure. But the Moldovan government should be encouraged to go even further and work with Transnistria to develop a joint position in these talks.

The EU, though, should keep two potential, distant challenges in mind: Russia and Ukraine. Moscow does not seem to be interested in Chisinau today. As one Russian policymaker put it recently, Moldova’s situation is a done deal, as the country is definitely headed toward the EU. Thus Russia does not express much interest in Chisinau joining its Customs Union or further integration projects.

However, the closer the end of the talks gets, the greater the chance that the rhetoric may change. And that rhetoric shift will be more likely if Transnistria participates in the talks with the EU. The breakaway region, which is currently home to a Russian peacekeeping force, may be used as a trump card by Moscow. Negative statements are likely to follow from the newly appointed Russian envoy to Transnistria.

The second potential “troublemaker” or “deal breaker,” Ukraine, may also appear on the scene by autumn 2013. Officially, Kyiv may find it difficult to maintain positive relations with Chisinau if the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and DCFTA remain stalled while similar EU-Moldova agreements are finalized and signed. An important player in “5+2” talks on Transnistria today, Ukraine may become rather uncooperative  with Brussels and Chisinau because of simple pride. The only way to stop this scenario from happening would perhaps be to appeal to Ukraine’s chairmanship in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe that will take place in 2013.

The European Union must remain present in Moldova and pressure the alliance to move forward with reforms. At the same time, it should also give a supporting hand when it comes to dealing with Moscow or Kyiv.

About the Author

Olga Shumylo-Tapiola

Former Nonresident Associate, Carnegie Europe

Shumylo-Tapiola is a nonresident associate at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where her research focuses on Eastern Europe and Eurasia.

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    Ukraine Between East and West

      Olga Shumylo-Tapiola

  • Commentary
    Ukraine: Democracy Has a Chance

      Olga Shumylo-Tapiola

Olga Shumylo-Tapiola
Former Nonresident Associate, Carnegie Europe
Olga Shumylo-Tapiola
RussiaEuropeEastern EuropeMoldova

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Commentary
    Europe Doesn’t Like War—for Good Reasons

    The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are existential threats to Europe as a peace project. Leaders and citizens alike must reaffirm their solidarity to face up to today’s multifaceted challenges.

      Marc Pierini

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Blocking of Telegram App Sparks Rare Public Rift Among Russia’s Elites

    The prospect of a total block on Russia’s most popular messaging app has sparked disagreement between the regime’s political managers and its security agencies.

      Andrey Pertsev

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Win or Lose, Orbán has Broken Hungary’s Democracy

    Hungarians head to the polls on April 12 for an election of national and European consequence. Three different outcomes are on the cards, each with their own implications for the EU.

      Zsuzsanna Szelényi

  • A member of "Timur's Special Forces Unit" of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine looks on on Snake Island, also known as Zmiinyi Island, located in the Black Sea, on August 14, 2025, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
    Article
    The Changing Military Balance in the Black Sea: A Ukrainian Perspective

    Ukraine’s asymmetric approach has rendered Russia’s Black Sea Fleet functionally useless. But a long-term commitment will be needed to maintain this balance of power.

      Alina Frolova, Stepan Yakymiak

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    The Afghanistan–Pakistan War Poses Awkward Questions for Russia

    Not only does the fighting jeopardize regional security, it undermines Russian attempts to promote alternatives to the Western-dominated world order.

      Ruslan Suleymanov

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600Fax: 202 483 1840
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.