As Israel’s military offensive in Lebanon intensifies, hundreds of thousands of civilians are fleeing their homes, turning once vibrant communities into ghost towns. Official estimates suggest that the latest violence has displaced nearly 1.5 million people since September 23, marking one of the most severe humanitarian crises in Lebanon in decades. While the majority of those fleeing are Lebanese nationals, a significant number of Syrian refugees residing in Lebanon are also forced to seek safety elsewhere as the conflict spreads.
For more a decade, 1.5 million Syrians have sought refuge in Lebanon, enduring economic hardship and rising anti-refugee sentiment to avoid the threats they would likely encounter if they returned to Syria. Now, however, with rapidly deteriorating humanitarian and security conditions in Lebanon, many refugees are left with two equally perilous options: stay in Lebanon and relive the horrors of war, or return to Syria and face the dangers that drove them to flee in the first place.
According to Lebanese authorities, more than 500,000 people have crossed into Syria since October 25, with Syrians accounting for nearly 70 percent of these returns. Given the lack of safe alternatives, President Bashar al-Assad’s regimerecent willingness to accept returning refugees should be urgently and carefully scrutinized. Independent and transparent oversight mechanisms are essential to ensure that returning individuals receive adequate protection. Without such safeguards, the risks for returnees could be devastating.
Exclusion from Essential Assistance
While returning to Syria is a perilous choice for many Syrians in Lebanon, remaining in a war-torn environment presents its own severe challenges. Before the current wave of displacement, Syrians in Lebanon were already highly vulnerable, subjected to increasing arbitrary deportations, forced evictions, and escalating vigilante violence. The recent displacement has exacerbated conditions for Syrian refugees in Lebanon, with many reporting exclusion from shelters and aid.
The scale and speed of displacement in Lebanon, Unprecedented in recent decades, have created extremely difficult humanitarian conditions in a country already facing economic collapse and a polarized political landscape. Although makeshift shelters were quickly established, these facilities reached capacity almost immediately. Rising anti-Syrian sentiment, compounded by overwhelming needs and limited resources, has led to incidents of Syrian refugees being turned away from shelters. Many facilities have effectively become “Lebanese-only” spaces, with Syrians excluded from receiving basic assistance.
Municipalities, particularly in the Bekaa Valley, have warned Syrians in certain camps against hosting newly displaced friends or family, threatening eviction for noncompliance. In some cases, Syrian refugees have been evicted to make room for displaced Lebanese families, intensifying the housing crisis for Syrians who have nowhere else to go.
Human rights organizations have sounded the alarm over the exclusion of Syrians from shelter and aid, noting that tens of thousands have been left without viable alternatives. In response to this dire situation, urgent calls have been made to “lift discriminatory barriers” and grant Syrians equal access to shelter and assistance. However, the apparent ineffectiveness of these appeals has left many Syrian refugees with no good choices. Instead, they must decide between two equally dire options: endure increasingly hostile conditions in Lebanon or cross the border into Syria, facing the dangers they once fled in a desperate hope for safety for their families.
Double Standards for Syrians, Even at Home
Upon return to their homeland, Syrians continue to experience discrimination. In response to the influx of Lebanese refugees seeking safety in Syria, the regime quickly enacted measures to ease their entry, including allowing Lebanese citizens to cross the border with any form of official identification. However, returning Syrians have not been Enjoyed the same flexibility. Despite enduring severe financial hardship, every Syrian adult returning to the country was still required to exchange $100 at the border, at an exchange rate significantly lower than the black market rate. This policy, aimed at bolstering the regime's foreign currency reserves, has resulted in many Syrian refugees left stranded at the border, unable to enter due to a lack of funds.
Following widespread criticism, on September 29 the regime announced a temporary suspension of this requirement, which has since been extended on a weekly basis. In tandem with this suspension, the regime launched an extensive media campaign to publicize its willingness to support initiatives to aid the return of Syrian refugees. Analysts suggest that this advertised leniency may signal the regime's hopes that the return of Syrians could attract financial support, especially from Arab countries urging Damascus to facilitate refugee repatriation.
Despite these assurances, discriminatory policies against returning Syrians remain in effect. Regime-established shelters in rural Damascus, Tartus, Latakia, Homs, Hama, and Aleppo have been predominantly allocated for Lebanese refugees, leaving many Syrian returnees without adequate shelter. These Syrians are often forced to rely on family support or resort to makeshift accommodations on the streets. Furthermore, aid provisions for Syrian returnees have reportedly been smaller than those allocated to Lebanese refugees, often falling short of meeting even the most basic necessities.
Persistent Risks for Returning Refugees
In addition to discrimination, Syrians returning home experienced significant dangers. Lebanese authorities report that between September 23 and October 25, approximately 348,237 Syrians have returned to Syria. However, the majority of these returnees are women and children, with most Syrian men choosing to remain in Lebanon for fear of the risks awaiting them back home—risks considered even greater than the daily security threats they endure in Lebanon. Furthermore, tens of thousands returnees have opted to settle in areas outside regime control, either because these are their original communities or to avoid the severe dangers associated with regime-held regions.
This reluctance, particularly among Syrian men, to return to or live in areas under regime control stems from Syrian security force abuses—including arbitrary detention, kidnapping, torture, and even killings. Organizations like Human Rights Watch have extensively documented these violations, underscoring the serious and ongoing threats to potential returnees.
Despite the Syrian regime’s publicized efforts to encourage refugee returns, acute safety concerns persist. The Syrian Network for Human Rights has reported numerous violations against returnees, including financial extortion, arbitrary arrests, enforced disappearances, torture, and forced conscription. Between September 23 and October 25, the network recorded the detention of at least twenty-six returnees, including one woman; tragically, one detainee died from torture in a regime detention center. These incidents highlight the enduring pattern of human rights abuses, casting serious doubt on the regime’s assurances of safe passage and protection for returning Syrians.
As more Syrian refugees in Lebanon consider returning to Syria as a necessary gamble for their families’ safety, the Syrian regime’s express commitment to facilitating their return must be rigorously scrutinized. Robust, independent mechanisms must be established to monitor and protect them. Without such safeguards, the risks for returning Syrian refugees remain severe, and the potential for further persecution cannot be ignored. The international community must remain vigilant in holding the Syrian regime accountable for the safety and rights of those who are forced to return.
