• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
Democracy
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Gavin Wilde"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "blog": "Emissary",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [
    "Technology and International Affairs"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Russia",
    "Eastern Europe",
    "Ukraine"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Security",
    "Technology"
  ]
}
Attribution logo

Source: Getty

Commentary
Emissary

Why Cyber Attacks on Ukrainians Aren’t Working the Way Russia Expected

Ukrainians have proven remarkably resilient, bouncing back from each disruption with resolve.

Link Copied
By Gavin Wilde
Published on Mar 11, 2024
Emissary

Blog

Emissary

Emissary harnesses Carnegie’s global scholarship to deliver incisive, nuanced analysis on the most pressing international affairs challenges.

Learn More
Program mobile hero image

Program

Technology and International Affairs

The Technology and International Affairs Program develops insights to address the governance challenges and large-scale risks of new technologies. Our experts identify actionable best practices and incentives for industry and government leaders on artificial intelligence, cyber threats, cloud security, countering influence operations, reducing the risk of biotechnologies, and ensuring global digital inclusion.

Learn More

The Russian armed forces have invaded and occupied Ukrainian territory for the past ten years—and waged full-scale war against Ukraine for the past two. During that time, Russian hackers have also been battling in cyberspace. But rather than fighting the Ukrainian military, they are often focused on making life hard for average Ukrainians.

The majority of Russia’s cyber attacks seem specifically intended to disrupt day-to-day routines by, for example, turning off electricity or making internet connections unstable. The hackers’ goal is to make life so uncomfortable that Ukrainians lose hope in themselves, lose faith in their leaders, and ultimately give up the fight for both their independence and territory. As odd as it may seem, Moscow has made demoralizing civilians in cyberspace a key pillar of how it thinks about winning wars.

But does it work? The evidence suggests probably not . Ukrainians have proven remarkably resilient, bouncing back from each cyber disruption—even garnering support from some of the world’s biggest technology companies to make their infrastructure more secure than ever. Civilians have banded together and rallied around their leaders in Kyiv. Ukraine has also become one of the most digitally connected and technologically savvy countries in Europe. Without discounting the suffering and costs Russian cyber attacks have caused, Ukrainian adaptivity must be part of any analysis about the role of cyber operations in armed conflict.

In many ways, history is repeating itself. Military leaders in many countries—including the United States—have long banked on the idea that sinking civilian morale would be key to military victory. For instance, in World War II, Berlin assumed that bombing British homes, electrical grids, and other nonmilitary targets would spark enough confusion, anxiety, and desperation that London would give up. The United States had similar thoughts in Vietnam.

Instead, scholars and historians have found that in most cases, the targeted societies just got angrier, and their resolve to resist only intensified. The reason this philosophy tends to persist is because civilians simply make easier targets than militaries—and political leaders want quick, easy solutions to hard problems. In Russia’s case, hackers also have every incentive to be as opportunistic and disruptive as possible—particularly if the alternative is being handed a rifle and shipped to the front lines.

Russia’s threats to stability in cyberspace are very real. But these disruptions may not work to the Kremlin’s favor in winning a war for Ukrainian territory, much less for Ukrainian hearts and minds. For as much attention as Russian hackers might demand, asking what they’re actually accomplishing is worthwhile. Focusing on what lessons Ukraine has to offer about bouncing back is even more crucial.

Watch and subscribe to more Carnegie videos.

Gavin Wilde
Nonresident Fellow, Technology and International Affairs
Gavin Wilde
SecurityTechnologyRussiaEastern EuropeUkraine

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Emissary

  • Stack of Iranian newspapers featuring Trump's face and a burning American flag
    Commentary
    Emissary
    The United States Should Apply the Arab Spring’s Lessons to Its Iran Response

    The uprisings showed that foreign military intervention rarely produced democratic breakthroughs.

      • Sarah Yerkes

      Amr Hamzawy, Sarah Yerkes

  • Police standing watch
    Commentary
    Emissary
    What’s Keeping the Iranian Regime in Power—for Now

    A conversation with Karim Sadjadpour and Robin Wright about the recent protests and where the Islamic Republic might go from here.

      Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour, Robin Wright

  • Soldier looking at a drone on the ground
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Are All Wars Now Drone Wars?

    From Sudan to Ukraine, UAVs have upended warfighting tactics and become one of the most destructive weapons of conflict.

      • Jon Bateman

      Jon Bateman, Steve Feldstein

  • Carney speaking on stage
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Carney’s Remarkable Message to Middle Powers

    And how they can respond.

      • +1

      Sophia Besch, Steve Feldstein, Stewart Patrick, …

  • Trump speaking on a stage
    Commentary
    Emissary
    The Greenland Episode Must Be a Lesson for Europe and NATO

    They cannot return to the comforts of asymmetric reliance, dressed up as partnership.

      Sophia Besch

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600Fax: 202 483 1840
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.