Source: New York Times
Egypt's Declining InfluenceEgypt has become so preoccupied with its domestic affairs — potential succession after Mubarak’s thirty-year reign, economic problems, and increasingly demands for political change — that it simply is not playing the kind of extensive regional role it once did.
Egypt did provide a channel of communication to the Palestinians at times when the United States would not speak to certain parties, first to Palestinian President Yasser Arafat and later to Hamas. But the effectiveness of Egyptian diplomacy has been declining for some time.
While Mubarak was close to Arafat, he is less close to Mahmoud Abbas and does not serve as much as an outside adviser to him. Egyptian efforts to broker an agreement between Fatah and Hamas have not been successful.
Much of this is not really Egypt’s fault; the peace process is largely out of its hands at the moment. The current Israeli government is not interested in reaching an agreement with the Palestinians. And the Palestinians are so divided amongst themselves that it is very difficult for them to be flexible. And frankly the United States and Israel stand in the way of reaching a Fatah-Hamas agreement.
If there is a major change in the Egyptian government, the main peace process issues to be concerned about are a change in Egypt’s policy toward Gaza and its role in the Arab League. A new leadership probably would be more responsive to Egyptian public opinion and accordingly less cooperative with Israel in terms of restricting goods going into Gaza — although it will probably still restrict Palestinians coming out of Gaza into the Sinai because that is critical to Egyptian national security.
A new government also might not be as cooperative with the United States in terms of managing the Arab League and the positions it takes on Arab-Israeli issues.