• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Christopher Boucek"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Arab Awakening"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "MEP",
  "programs": [
    "Middle East"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Middle East",
    "Yemen",
    "Gulf"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Security"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

In The Media

Evolution of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

In order to improve security and stability in Yemen, U.S. policy should focus on addressing the systemic sources of instability in the country.

Link Copied
By Christopher Boucek
Published on Nov 1, 2011
Program mobile hero image

Program

Middle East

The Middle East Program in Washington combines in-depth regional knowledge with incisive comparative analysis to provide deeply informed recommendations. With expertise in the Gulf, North Africa, Iran, and Israel/Palestine, we examine crosscutting themes of political, economic, and social change in both English and Arabic.

Learn More

Source: Orient IV

Evolution of al-Qaeda in the Arabian PeninsulaSince its creation in January 2009, the Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has eclipsed ‘core al-Qaeda’ as the primary terrorist threat to US national security. Since last year, numerous senior US security officials have commented that AQAP has emerged as the organization most likely to kill American nationals and to attack U.S. interests. In an address at the Carnegie Endowment in December 2010, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism John Brennan termed AQAP “the most operationally active node of the al-Qaida network.” In Congressional testimony in early 2011, then National Counterterrorism Center Director Michael Leiter referred to AQAP as the most significant risk to the US homeland. 

Without a doubt, Yemen presents a complex challenge for policy makers. Numerous governments have grappled with implementing an integrated policy toward Yemen. There is near unanimity on what the international community wants to avoid in Yemen: the collapse of the state and greater operational space for al-Qaeda to plan and launch attacks against western and allied interests. A key obstacle, however, is that no one can very well articulate what a ‘failed’ Yemen looks like, much less the triggers that might lead to state failure. It has therefore been extremely difficult for policy makers to design a policy when they do not know what they want to avoid and do not know how it might happen. Rather than concentrating on state failure in Yemen, a more useful approach may be to focus on the notion of ‘regime failure’. 
 
In large part, US policy toward Yemen has focused almost exclusively on the issues of terrorism, counter-terrorism, and al-Qaeda. To be sure, terrorism and security are major issues with regards to Yemen; however, the United States should not allow these issues to dominate the relationship. Terrorism and al- Qaeda may be the current issues of most concern for Washington (and London, Brussels, and Riyadh), but they are not the greatest threats to Yemeni stability. 
 
In order to improve security and stability in Yemen, US policy should be focused on addressing the systemic sources of instability in the country. These include a collapsing economy, rampant corruption, widespread unemployment, rapid resource depletion, and a series of political and socio-economic challenges that have manifested themselves as security challenges for the current government. A policy centered on counter-terrorism to the near exclusion of other issues will ultimately prove counterproductive. While initial gains may be seen, they could be short lived. Improvement in American and allied security will come when conditions in Yemen for all Yemenis improve.
 

About the Author

Christopher Boucek

Former Associate, Middle East Program

Boucek was an associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program where his research focused on security challenges in the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Africa.

    Recent Work

  • Q&A
    Yemen After Saleh’s Return and Awlaki’s Exit

      Christopher Boucek

  • Q&A
    Rivals—Iran vs. Saudi Arabia

      Christopher Boucek, Karim Sadjadpour

Christopher Boucek
Former Associate, Middle East Program
Christopher Boucek
Political ReformSecurityMiddle EastYemenGulf

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Pashinyan surrounded by supporters while speaking to reporters
    Commentary
    Next Steps Toward Peace After the Armenian Elections

    It’s time to build momentum, and Ankara is the venue of the next opportune diplomatic window to do this.

      • Garo Paylan

      Alper Coşkun, Garo Paylan

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    European Security Strategy: In Search of a New Ambition

    The EU is putting together a new security strategy to meet today’s myriad challenges. But for any proposal to be effective, the union needs to grapple with its identity and ambitions.

      Pierre Vimont

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Will Russia–Armenia Relations Improve Following Pashinyan’s Re-Election?

    For all the menacing rhetoric, the Armenian prime minister remains a leader with whom Putin is prepared to interact: not as an ally, but as a partner, albeit a problematic one.

      • Alexander Atasuntsev

      Alexander Atasuntsev

  • Commentary
    Emissary
    Washington and Tehran’s Very Dangerous Moment

    The Islamic Republic’s words and actions suggest that it has changed its approach to both diplomacy and war.

      • Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar

      Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    The Climate Blind Spot in Europe’s New Migration Pact

    The EU’s new migration policy is not suited to today’s realities. With climate change increasingly becoming a driver of displacement, Europe needs to rethink its deterrence-focused approach.

      • Shana Tabak headshot

      Shana Tabak

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.