• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
Democracy
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Cornelius Adebahr"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Transatlantic Cooperation",
    "Europe’s Southern Neighborhood",
    "Iranian Proliferation"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [
    "Europe"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Middle East",
    "Europe",
    "North America",
    "Iran"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Foreign Policy",
    "Security",
    "Nuclear Policy"
  ]
}
In The Media
Carnegie Europe

Containing Trump: Why Europe Must Save the Iran Deal

Following the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, it falls to the Europeans to defend the international agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.

Link Copied
By Cornelius Adebahr
Published on Dec 9, 2016
Program mobile hero image

Program

Europe

The Europe Program in Washington explores the political and security developments within Europe, transatlantic relations, and Europe’s global role. Working in coordination with Carnegie Europe in Brussels, the program brings together U.S. and European policymakers and experts on strategic issues facing Europe.

Learn More

Source: El País

During his campaign, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump did not elaborate much on his foreign policy agenda. Yet he was very vocal about a few things: next to obliterating the so-called Islamic State and starting a trade war with China, Trump declared to “dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.” This agreement, which put an end to Tehran deceiving the world about its nuclear program, is not only one of the few successes of European foreign policy. It is also an expression of how to collectively, and ultimately successfully, deal with a global challenge.

With Trump’s election, it now falls to the Europeans—as the initiators of a decade-long diplomatic process—to defend this historic accord. His rhetoric suggests that this will be an uphill battle.

In the United States, the idea that there could be a better deal was widespread but finally rebuked after intense debate following the signing of the agreement in July 2015. Those who want to undo the deal prefer a different solution to the problem altogether: either by forcing Iran to its knees through increased economic isolation or by ridding the country of its nuclear infrastructure—and possibly its regime—through military intervention. Just look at Cuba and Iraq to see how well those approaches have worked.

The deal, imperfect as it is, is still the best solution to the threat that Iran’s clandestine nuclear activities posed both to the nonproliferation regime and to neighbors like Israel. It is the collective expression of the interests of all its signatories, including China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union. Moreover, it is underwritten by a resolution of the UN Security Council. Altogether, the deal carries as much international legitimacy as one can get.

This landmark deal will have been in force and faithfully implemented by all parties for one year—almost to the day—by the time that Trump swears the oath of office. Beyond the mere fencing in of Iran’s nuclear program, it embodies a global understanding of how the world (ideally) should be run: through compromise and commonly agreed rules that all actors subscribe to and which, if violated, are backed up by a harsh, multilateral sanctions regime. In turn, the agreement also stands for how its signatories relate to this world order—whether they feel bound by it or not. This carries particular significance for Iran, the United States, and the EU.

As a revolutionary state, the Islamic Republic has long been unsure about whether to oppose the current global system or to try to improve its position within it. The nuclear file is an illustration of this ambiguity: Iran defied the UN Security Council for nearly a decade all while taking pains to argue that its actions were within the confines of the nonproliferation regime. Moreover, Tehran has seen its share of domestic controversy over the deal, with a presidential election looming next spring that could turn into a referendum on the accord.

The United States, too, has a history of violating globally agreed rules when it has served its interests, despite being a founder and presumed guardian of the post–World War II order. After all that has been heard from candidate Trump on the campaign trail and in the immediate aftermath of his electoral victory, the question of national sovereignty vs. global rules will be front and center from the beginning of his presidency.

The Europeans, in contrast, cannot thrive but in a multilateral, rules-based environment. The EU is not a powerful nation-state that can rally its citizens around a shared destiny; instead, it will struggle even to uphold its unity given the UK’s vote to leave the union and, relatedly, the rise of populism throughout the continent. Moreover, they will have to face a lot of differences with the next U.S. president, from maintaining the transatlantic alliance and confronting Russia to dealing with the Middle East and climate change.

Preserving the Iran deal, by ensuring full compliance from all sides with both its letter and its spirit, is in the EU’s genuine interest. Together, the Europeans should hold the incoming U.S. administration accountable to it as much as they have held Tehran accountable, for the sake of not only the nonproliferation regime but also the rules-based global order without which Europe has no role to play in the world.

This article was originally published by El País in Spanish with the title “Contener a Trump.”

Cornelius Adebahr
Former Nonresident Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Cornelius Adebahr
Foreign PolicySecurityNuclear PolicyMiddle EastEuropeNorth AmericaIran

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • People on a stage
    Commentary
    Emissary
    The Dangerous Consequences of Treating Colombia Like Venezuela

    When democracies and autocracies are seen as interchangeable targets, the language of democracy becomes hollow, and the incentives for democratic governance erode.

      • Sarah Yerkes

      Sarah Yerkes, Amr Hamzawy

  • Workers of automotive manufacturer VW assemble pieces of a model in the Uitenhage plant.
    Paper
    Win-Win: The Potential and Prospects of German FDI in Supporting the Structural Transformation of African Economies

    German manufacturing firms in Africa add value, jobs, and skills, while benefiting from demand and a diversification of trade and investment partners. It is in the interest of both African economies and Germany to deepen economic relations. 

      Hannah Grupp, Paul M. Lubeck

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Has Trump the Destroyer Eclipsed Putin the Destroyer?

    Unexpectedly, Trump’s America appears to have replaced Putin’s Russia’s as the world’s biggest disruptor.

      Alexander Baunov

  • Soldier looking at a drone on the ground
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Are All Wars Now Drone Wars?

    From Sudan to Ukraine, UAVs have upended warfighting tactics and become one of the most destructive weapons of conflict.

      • Jon Bateman

      Jon Bateman, Steve Feldstein

  • Carney speaking on stage
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Carney’s Remarkable Message to Middle Powers

    And how they can respond.

      • +1

      Sophia Besch, Steve Feldstein, Stewart Patrick, …

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600Fax: 202 483 1840
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.