Other
Michael D. Swaine
{
"authors": [
"Michael D. Swaine"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie China"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "AP",
"programs": [
"Asia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"East Asia",
"South Korea",
"China",
"Taiwan",
"Japan",
"North Korea"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy",
"Nuclear Policy",
"Security",
"Arms Control"
]
}
Source: Getty
Other
Chinese Views on the Trump Administration’s Asia Policy
Authoritative and non-authoritative Chinese commentaries on the Trump administration’s foreign policy have tended to avoid making hostile remarks in response to some notable U.S. provocations.
Published on Jun 1, 2017
Source: China Leadership Monitor
Authoritative and non-authoritative Chinese commentaries on the Trump administration’s foreign policy have tended to avoid making hostile remarks in response to some notable U.S. provocations. This cautious stance most likely reflects at least three factors. First, the Chinese now recognize that presidential campaigns often produce aggressive rhetoric, but a new administration eventually moderates its stance in the face of practical constraints. Second, the upcoming 19th Party Congress in fall 2017 strongly indicates the need for Beijing to avoid taking any actions that could generate a foreign policy crisis. Third, the Chinese probably believe that Trump is ultimately someone who will take a pragmatic and transactional approach toward the Sino-American relationship. The current Chinese viewpoint, however, could darken considerably if Washington or Beijing adopt confrontational stances toward sensitive and potentially volatile foreign policy issues such as North Korea, Taiwan, or the South China Sea.
In CLM 50, we examined Chinese views on presidential candidates Hillary R. Clinton and Donald J. Trump. In this issue, we take a close look at Chinese views toward President Trump’s policies toward Asia and China. The period covered begins with Trump’s election on November 8, 2016, and ends with the presidential summit between President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping, held at Trump’s Mar-A-Lago resort April 6–7.
As in previous Monitor articles, Chinese views in this essay are divided into authoritative and non-authoritative statements and actions. Five main foreign policy subjects are covered: 1) the state of overall current and future U.S.-China relations; 2) economic and trade policy, especially involving China; 3) the Taiwan issue; 4) the ongoing North Korea nuclear weapons crisis; and 5) maritime disputes in the South and East China Seas. The article ends with an assessment of the main features and trends of those views and their possible implications for the future...
About the Author
Michael D. Swaine
Former Senior Fellow, Asia Program
Swaine was a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most prominent American analysts in Chinese security studies.
- What Kind of Global Order Should Washington and Beijing Strive For?
- A Smarter U.S. Strategy for China in Four StepsCommentary
Michael D. Swaine
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Gas and Peace: Can Energy Trade Contain Egypt-Israel Conflict?Commentary
Can economic ties help contain conflict between Egypt and Israel, or do they simply postpone confrontation? Drawing on the German-Russian experience, the article examines how the gas deal creates mutual dependence, keeps channels of cooperation open, and raises the cost of conflict, without necessarily delivering lasting peace.
Nourhan Hefzy
- Europe’s Overseas Countries and Territories as Geopolitical AssetsArticle
European states control several Overseas Countries and Territories around the world that carry strategic, economic, and environmental weight. As great powers challenge the rules-based order, defending them is a geopolitical imperative for Europe.
Marc Pierini
- The Achilles’ Heel of the Shield of the AmericasCommentary
By focusing only on hard security, the Shield ignores the conditions that fuel cartel power.
Alejandro Martin Rodriguez, Kayly Ober
- A Halting Turn: India’s Military TransformationCommentary
In any defense establishment, change is an ongoing process. However, despite the best of intentions, existing bureaucracies, bound by habit and years of socialization, have their limits in implementing transformative change.
Anit Mukherjee
- The Iran War Has Sparked a Domestic Crisis in KenyaCommentary
The conflict has sent economic and political shock waves through a country with no representation at the negotiating table—and Kenya is not alone.
Georgia Schaefer-Brown, Jane Munga
