Summary
- An October 20–25 survey found that 43 percent of Black Americans supported some form of ceasefire in Gaza, while 24 percent believed the United States should not be involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
- Black Americans’ feelings toward U.S. President Joe Biden largely remained the same after Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel—except for independent voters and young voters, who both felt slightly worse about Biden.
- Nearly half of Black respondents reported not feeling connected to the plight of either Israelis or Palestinians. However, more Black Americans reported feeling connected to Israelis.
- A plurality of Black Americans (40 percent) supported the Biden administration’s proposal to provide Israel with an additional $14 billion in military assistance. Fewer respondents (33 percent) supported sending U.S. troops to defend Israel if it were attacked by its neighbors.
Introduction
Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel and Israel’s ensuing military operations in Gaza—both of which have resulted in mass deaths of Israeli and Palestinian civilians—has reoriented Washington’s attention back to the Middle East and reignited conversation on the American public’s opinion on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. An October survey conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s American Statecraft Program revealed that many Black Americans want the U.S. approach to the Israel-Hamas war to promote diplomacy and prioritize protecting civilians.
Black writers and civil rights leaders have long viewed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through the lens of the Black struggle for sociopolitical equality. Malcolm X, Angela Davis, Jesse Jackson, and other Black activists expressed support for the Palestinian right to self-determination, with a view that both Black Americans and Palestinians suffered from similar indignities—such as state violence, dispossession, and underdevelopment. The connections between Black and Jewish Americans are also long-standing. Jewish Americans participated in the Civil Rights Movement in a variety of ways, including assisting in legal initiatives to dismantle the Jim Crow laws and registering Black voters in the segregated South. Black leaders including Walter White, Bayard Rustin, and Barack Obama recognized the oppression of Jews and have linked it to their support for the state of Israel.
The Carnegie survey focused on Black Americans’ opinions, though it included White respondents for a comparative analysis. The survey of 1,600 adults (comprised of 800 Black, non-Hispanic Americans and 800 White, non-Hispanic Americans) was conducted from October 20 to 25, 2023, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percent for the Black sample and +/- 3.51 percent for the White sample.
Views on What Position the United States Should Take Toward Israel and Palestine
Survey responses revealed that while there was substantial Black American support for Israel, a plurality supported a ceasefire or greater restraint toward Palestinian civilians (see figure 1).
For instance, 95 percent of Black Americans rejected the idea of showing “unwavering support” for Israel, compared to 77 percent of White Americans. Furthermore, 43 percent of Black Americans supported some form of ceasefire, with 28 percent reporting that the United States should encourage an immediate ceasefire and 15 percent favoring a temporary ceasefire so that humanitarian aid could flow into Gaza. For comparison, 35 percent of White Americans supported some form of a ceasefire. (The racial differences over support of a ceasefire and military action has been noted in other polling.) Lastly, 24 percent of Black Americans believed the United States should not be involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, compared to 19 percent of White Americans.
Across the American public, there is a growing sentiment that the United States should be less involved in world affairs. In fact, previous Carnegie surveys revealed that a plurality of Black Americans believed the United States should “stay out” of world affairs. It is likely that some Black respondents to our October survey believed the Israel-Hamas war is another international development that the United States should not get entangled in—albeit for different reasons. However, the survey’s findings primarily revealed that many Black Americans believed the United States should play a mediating role in the war that limits civilian deaths and suffering.
Feelings on Biden
Recent polling shows that U.S. President Joe Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war has slightly eroded enthusiasm for him among some communities—most notably progressives, young voters, and Muslim and Arab American communities. However, according to our survey, a large majority of Black Americans—who make up Biden’s and the Democratic Party’s most loyal demographic (90 percent of Black voters supported Biden in 2020)—felt roughly the same about Biden in the wake of Hamas’s attack, although support declined slightly among certain demographics (see figure 2).
About 65 percent of Black Americans reported that they felt the same and 16 percent reported that they felt worse about Biden since October 7. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the partisan nature of U.S. politics today, the largest change in sentiment toward Biden was among non-Democrats. Twice as many Black Democrats (21 percent) reported that they felt better about Biden compared to Black independents (10 percent). On the other hand, twice as many Black independents (23 percent) reported feeling worse about Biden compared to Black Democrats (10 percent) (see figure 3).1
For Black respondents over thirty years old, the administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war thus far has not strongly impacted their feelings toward Biden; only 14 percent of this demographic felt worse about him. For Black respondents under thirty, 21 percent reported that they felt worse about the president.
These findings could be a function of two variables: that Black Americans are confident Biden is competent in handling foreign policy and therefore that he is doing what is best for the United States, or that Biden’s handling of the war does not factor much into their calculations of whether to support the president. Both may factor to some degree.
Connection to the Israeli or Palestinian Plight
Some scholars and pundits have argued that the 2020 racial reckoning in the United States shifted Black public opinion on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They have argued that George Floyd’s murder and ensuing racial fissures elucidated solidarity between Black Americans and Palestinians in their fights for equality and against excessive force by security personnel. Nevertheless, in our survey, about half of Black respondents (48 percent) reported that they did not feel connected to either the Israeli or Palestinian plight, compared to 38 percent of White Americans who did not feel connected (see figure 4).
Of the remaining Black respondents, 9 percent reported feeling solely connected to the plight of Palestinians, while 19 percent reported feeling connected to the plight of Israelis. Roughly 23 percent reported feeling connected to both sides. Comparing this to White respondents’ opinions, if the “I feel connected to both” and “the Palestinians” categories are combined, slightly more Black Americans (32 percent) expressed feeling connected to Palestinians than White Americans (27 percent). Still though, when combining those categories, more Black respondents (42 percent) expressed feeling connected to Israelis.
The finding that roughly half of Black Americans did not feel connected to either Palestinians or Israelis—and that more Black Americans felt connected to Israelis than Palestinians—is interesting because, as stated earlier, voices championing Black-Palestinian solidarity have grown in recent years, sometimes receiving high-profile coverage. This has created a narrative among the public that Black Americans feel more connected to Palestinians. However, the survey data show that many Black Americans sympathize with both sides. More research is warranted because many reasons could potentially explain this disconnect between the public narrative and the survey results. One possible reason is that a vocal minority in the Black American community, such as intellectuals, activists, and young progressives, could feel solely connected to the Palestinian plight.
Potential Threats to the Community
With the Israel-Hamas war increasing concerns about antisemitism, Islamophobia, and potential terror attacks in the United States, the survey asked respondents if they felt the war would impact their communities. Notably, roughly the same number of Black Americans (19 percent) and White Americans (17 percent) viewed the war as a critical threat to themselves and their community (see figure 5). Fewer Black Americans (45 percent) said the war is important but not a critical threat to them or their community than White Americans (57 percent).
Meanwhile, 22 percent of Black Americans were not sure if the war is a threat, roughly double the number of White Americans (13 percent) with the same view. The substantial number of Black Americans who were not sure about the war’s impact on their community could be a function of a lack of understanding about how the war could have domestic consequences, such as an increase in hate crimes or foreign terror threats. This finding could also be due to a heightened sense of ambivalence toward the war among Black Americans, as domestic issues are more pronounced in their communities.
Support for Sending U.S. Troops to the Middle East
As the prospect of a wider conflict in the Middle East loomed and the United States positioned two aircraft carrier strike groups off the coast of Israel, the survey asked respondents if they would support sending U.S. troops if the war broadened and other countries in the Middle East attacked Israel. Black Americans were decidedly split on the topic, with 35 percent being unsure of their opinion, 32 percent opposing sending troops, and 33 percent supporting sending troops (see figure 6). Interestingly, the number of Black Americans who supported sending troops was close to the number of White Americans (33 percent versus 37 percent). Some of the lowest support for sending troops came from Black independents—22 percent—compared to 35 percent of Black Democrats.
Additional Military Aid to Israel
A plurality (40 percent) of Black respondents reported support for the United States sending an additional $14 billion in military aid to Israel (see figure 7). Examining the results along partisan lines, 44 percent of Black independents reported being opposed to the additional aid, compared to 29 percent of Black Democrats who felt the same way. The significant number of Black independents who were opposed to the additional aid could be a function of their concern that the assistance could harm Palestinian civilians or, as is the case with foreign policy spending in general, could be better used to address domestic issues.
Conclusion
Since the Carnegie survey was conducted in late October, there have been major developments in the Israel-Hamas war; the Israeli government and Hamas agreed to a temporary ceasefire, and the number of civilian deaths in Gaza have risen. But insights can still be drawn from the survey.
Nearly a month after Hamas’s attack on Israel, 39 percent of Black Americans said the United States should show support for Israel. At the same time, 43 percent were in favor of the conflict being handled in a manner that does not take an excessive toll on Palestinian civilians.
Before and after Hamas’s October 7 attack, scholars and pundits pointed to growing solidarity between Black Americans and Palestinians in their fights for equality. This survey, however, indicates that most Black Americans were neutral in their sentiments toward both Palestinians and Israelis. In fact, Black Americans felt slightly more connected to the Israeli plight than the Palestinian plight.
Furthermore, polling and the media have made note of how many Americans, notably Democrats, have disapproved of Biden’s handling of the war. Yet a majority of Black Americans expressed that their feelings toward Biden had not changed since October 7. The data do, however, provide areas where potential fault lines may emerge among certain demographics in the Black community—most notably among young progressive voters and independents. It is unlikely that Biden’s handling of the war would result in a mass exodus of Black independents or young Black voters (two demographics whom Biden has recently attempted to court) into the Republican Party. But it could dampen enthusiasm and willingness to actively support his reelection in November 2024. If the war is handled in a manner that grossly violates the human rights of Palestinians or entangles the United States in an international conflict, this may influence some Black Americans to abstain from voting or cast their ballots for protest candidates, such as Cornel West, who is running an antiwar campaign.
Notes
1 The number of Black Republicans in the sample was not large enough to make any significant conclusions.
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