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Press Release

Press Release: Tellis Analyzes Exaggerated Threat of Expanding Indian Nuclear Arsenal

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Published on Jun 27, 2006
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Nuclear Policy

The Nuclear Policy Program aims to reduce the risk of nuclear war. Our experts diagnose acute risks stemming from technical and geopolitical developments, generate pragmatic solutions, and use our global network to advance risk-reduction policies. Our work covers deterrence, disarmament, arms control, nonproliferation, and nuclear energy.

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South Asia

The South Asia Program informs policy debates relating to the region’s security, economy, and political development. From strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific to India’s internal dynamics and U.S. engagement with the region, the program offers in-depth, rigorous research and analysis on South Asia’s most critical challenges.

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Middle East

The Middle East Program in Washington combines in-depth regional knowledge with incisive comparative analysis to provide deeply informed recommendations. With expertise in the Gulf, North Africa, Iran, and Israel/Palestine, we examine crosscutting themes of political, economic, and social change in both English and Arabic.

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For Immediate Release: June 27, 2006
Contact: Jennifer Linker, +1 (202) 939-2372, jlinker@CarnegieEndowment.org

Tellis Analyzes Exaggerated Threat of Expanding Indian Nuclear Arsenal

New Report Refutes Assumptions Underlying Claims of Rapidly Expanding Nuke Stockpile

Among the most serious criticisms leveled at the U.S.-Indian nuclear cooperation initiative is that it would enable India to rapidly expand its nuclear arsenal. Ashley J. Tellis, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, challenges these criticisms in a new report, Atoms for War? U.S.-Indian Civilian Nuclear Cooperation and India’s Nuclear Arsenal. Tellis argues that, contrary to current assumptions, India is not trying to construct the largest nuclear stockpile possible in South Asia, nor is its capacity to produce a large nuclear arsenal affected by the U.S.-Indian civilian nuclear agreement.

Tellis asserts that the evidence shows that the government of India is in no hurry to build the biggest nuclear stockpile it could construct based on material factors alone. The research in this report concludes that India already has the indigenous reserves of natural uranium necessary to develop the largest possible nuclear arsenal it may seek and, consequently, the U.S.-Indian civilian nuclear cooperation initiative will not materially contribute towards New Delhi's strategic capacities in any consequential way. Furthermore, that the current shortage of natural uranium in India is caused principally by constrictions in its mining and milling capacity but this is a transient problem that is in the process of being redressed.

Tellis also gives seven critical reasons why New Delhi views the U.S.-Indian nuclear cooperation agreement as vital to ensuring India’s energy security, and how it provides meaningful technical alternatives to Homi Bhabha’s “three-stage plan.”

To access a PDF file of the report, go to: www.CarnegieEndowment.org/AtomsforWar. 

Ashley J. Tellis is a senior associate specializing in international security, defense, and Asian strategic issues at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the co-editor of Strategic Asia 2005-06: Military Modernization in an Era of Uncertainty. He is also author of the Carnegie Report India as a New Global Power: An Action Agenda for the United States.

Press Contact:
Jennifer Linker, Tel: 202/939-2372,
jlinker@CarnegieEndowment.org
###

Foreign PolicyNuclear PolicyNorth AmericaUnited StatesMiddle EastIran

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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