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  "authors": [
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Source: Getty

In The Media
Carnegie Europe

The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict Marks the Return of Great-Power Politics

Russia and Turkey have brokered a peace deal for the Nagorny Karabakh conflict that greatly enhances their military presence in a region where they were losing influence.

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By Thomas de Waal
Published on Nov 11, 2020
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The Europe Program in Washington explores the political and security developments within Europe, transatlantic relations, and Europe’s global role. Working in coordination with Carnegie Europe in Brussels, the program brings together U.S. and European policymakers and experts on strategic issues facing Europe.

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Source: New York Times

After weeks of brutal and bloody fighting between Armenians and Azerbaijanis in and around the disputed enclave of Nagorny Karabakh, a halt has been called. Facing defeat, the Armenian side has more or less capitulated. Russian peacekeepers are already arriving to enforce a new peace deal.

It is a pivotal moment. The military and political map of the South Caucasus region has changed fundamentally. Lives have been saved. Hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijani refugees, displaced by the conflict in the late 1980s and early ’90s, can celebrate at the possibility of going home. But Armenians are shattered and fearful.

And the geopolitical picture is not so pretty: This is a deal brokered by two big autocratic neighbors, Russia and Turkey, that can now use it to pursue their own self-aggrandizing agendas. For them this is about troops and transport corridors, not people. The United States, despite being an official mediator, along with European countries, is being kept at bay, paying the price for years of not engaging with the conflict.

The conflict, which dates back to 1988 in its modern form, can lay claim to being Europe’s most intractable dispute. It pits the aspirations of the Armenian-majority region of Nagorny Karabakh for self-determination against Azerbaijan’s right to the territory under international law. Almost incapable of dialogue, both sides have sought to settle their dispute by force of arms. In the ’90s, the Armenian side prevailed at great cost; on Sept. 27, Azerbaijan took military action to reverse that defeat and recover lost lands.

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This article was originally published by New York Times with the title “Great-Power Politics Is Back.”

About the Author

Thomas de Waal

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Thomas de Waal is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    There Is No Shortcut for Europe in Armenia

      Thomas de Waal

  • Article
    Rewiring the South Caucasus: TRIPP and the New Geopolitics of Connectivity
      • Areg Kochinyan

      Thomas de Waal, Areg Kochinyan, Zaur Shiriyev

Thomas de Waal
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Thomas de Waal
SecurityForeign PolicyRussiaEuropeTürkiyeEastern EuropeMiddle EastCaucasusAzerbaijanArmeniaIran

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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