In The Media
Martha Brill Olcott
{
"authors": [
"Martha Brill Olcott"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "russia",
"programs": [
"Russia and Eurasia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"Iran",
"Syria",
"Russia",
"Eastern Europe",
"Ukraine",
"Levant"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Security",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Ukraine’s Effect on a Deal for Syria: Iran Could Become More of a Player
Putin’s annexation of Crimea may be a victory at home, but it will harm Russia’s interests in the Middle East. If Iran could get sanctions removed, it might benefit from selling gas and oil to Europe.
Published on Mar 18, 2014
Source: New York Times
Vladimir Putin’s rhetorically rich invocation of faith, language and history may endear him to the vast majority of his countrymen, but it won’t buy him the international support he needs to defend Russia’s broader interests, including those in the Middle East.
Putin has had limited international support for his policy in Ukraine. China abstained in the United Nations Security council, where 13 countries voted to endorse the territorial integrity of Ukraine, among them Jordan.Jordan’s own domestic stability has been put at risk by the presence of some half million refugees from Syria, where Assad’s continued survival must be counted as another of Putin’s policy triumphs.
Not surprisingly, Assad has been the most vocal supporter of Russia’s policies in Ukraine. The Syrian president's political survival is critical if Putin wishes to retain any foothold in the Middle East, a region where Moscow’s influence -- so critical during the “hot years” of the Arab-Israeli conflict in the 1960s and 1970s -- was diminished by the Middle East peace process.
Russia’s future influence in Syria, may depend on Iran, Assad’s other major ally. Lakdar Brahimi, the United Nations special envoy on Syria, visited Tehran to discuss the crisis on March 17. The meeting came just a day after Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister, together with Vladimir Makei, Belarus's foreign minister, called for dialogue and international law to prevail in Ukraine.
Iran could benefit from a boycott against Russia; it has the gas and oil to meet the energy needs of Moscow’s current customers, if only they could get the international sanctions against them removed. It remains to be seen if Tehran’s new rulers are pragmatic enough to figure out how to use the situation in Syria to help them do this, and if the U.S. will allow them this role.
This article was originally published in the New York Times.
About the Author
Martha Brill Olcott
Former Senior Associate, Russia and Eurasia Program and, Co-director, al-Farabi Carnegie Program on Central Asia
Olcott is professor emerita at Colgate University, having taught political science there from 1974 to 2002. Prior to her work at the endowment, Olcott served as a special consultant to former secretary of state Lawrence Eagleburger.
- After Crimea: Will Kazakhstan be Next in Putin’s Reintegration Project?
- China’s Unmatched Influence in Central AsiaArticle
Martha Brill Olcott
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Post U.S.-China Summit: Managed InstabilityCommentary
The U.S.-China Summit produced a welcome commitment to build a constructive, strategically stable relationship. However, the United States has a full agenda, including the USMCA review beginning this week, that will likely target Chinese practices of concern. If China views these efforts as inconsistent with the agreements reached in Beijing, it may slow or halt progress in response.
Barbara Weisel
- Can Europe Compete with the United States and China?Commentary
Between the United States’ market-driven approach and China's state-led industrial strategy, Europe is reckoning with how it can remain competitive in the global economy. But is Europe in danger of becoming a U.S. or China colony?
Noah Barkin, Anu Bradford
- Russian Market Sours for Belarusian State CompaniesCommentary
Minsk’s faith in the future of its larger neighbor’s economy is fading as Belarusian firms in Russia see record losses.
Olga Loiko
- EU Enlargement Forgets EuropeansCommentary
Preparing candidate countries for EU membership is no longer enough. As the enlargement process becomes a reality, the union must also prepare its own societies.
Iliriana Gjoni
- Did Putin Return From China Empty-Handed?Commentary
With no key agreement signed on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, there is a risk that the window of opportunity for Russia will close if Chinese power generation becomes so green that new gas sources are no longer of any interest to Beijing.
Alexander Gabuev
